Affichage des articles dont le libellé est guerre monétaire. Afficher tous les articles
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est guerre monétaire. Afficher tous les articles

2013/07/11

Qianhai is a toe

 Quand un représentant de la nation qui a inventé les arts martiaux vous dit que "Qianhai est un orteil", ce n'est pas à prendre à la légère.

In January, a dozen banks in Hong Kong signed yuan loan agreements with companies in Qianhai. This is the only channel for overseas yuan to flow back to the mainland. Many are looking closely now whether this will be challenged.
One official from the Qianhai Administration Bureau, however, shrugged off the concern and said Qianhai and Shanghai are positioned differently.
"Beijing is the brain, Shanghai is the heart and Qianhai is a toe," he said. "Financial innovations can be risky. They are not suitable for the heart but can be tried out on the toe."
Les orteils sont en effet indispensables pour maintenir en équilibre le corps. Ils apportent agilité, stabilité et proprioception. Et que vaut un champion s'il ne peut pas se tenir droit?
 La finance est définitivement un sport de combat, surtout en ces années de guerre monétaire. 

C'est dans cet esprit d'agilité que s'est située mon intervention lors du dernier séminaire organisé par le LEAP 2020 et l'université MGIMO à Moscou les 23-24 mai, lequel a réuni des représentants de plusieurs pays de la zone Euro, de la Commision Européenne et de tous les pays BRICS, dans la perspective de la préparation du prochain G20.  Une note de synthèse stratégique a déjà été diffusée.


J'ai évoqué lors de ce séminaire l'utilisation des zones administratives spéciales, déjà connues pour le commerce, pour leur associer les flux de la finance liés au commerce. La zone de Qianhai en est justement une bonne illustration. Nous diffuserons dans quelque temps le texte de cette intervention.

2012/10/24

Monetary war : from sovereign debt to sovereign gold

 As I wrote in "Le nerf de la guerre monétaire", behind sovereign debt, there's gold. Because the supposed-to-be-deadly Euro sovereign debt crisis is over, and the Euroland is successfully running towards much stronger integration, a new battlefield is being investigated : "Audit the gold Reserves". 

This is a very tactical game, and here are some recent developments:
 We, Europeans, must not be worried. We believe NY Fed when they say the german gold is there. And even if it weren't NY Fed is good for its replacement.

[This article was first updated 10/28 : add links about statements published 10/25 ; it will be further updated depending on future new important publications or press releases]

2012/08/01

Les devoirs de vacances de la zone Euro

 Le concept de "brouillard de guerre" s'est décliné en géostratégie "soft power" par la guerre de l'information ou infowar depuis 50 ans. Malgré les déclarations  depuis fin 2009 dans les médias sur la crise de l'euro, la guerre monétaire contre l'Euro (car ca en est bien une) se joue principalement en coulisses, dans les espaces spécialisés que l'on nomme rapidement "marchés" pour moins les distinguer.

Voici de nouveaux éléments pour mieux illustrer cette guerre :


En 6 mois, les hedge funds US ont retiré leurs placements en France et Allemagne (DEU) pour les placer au Canada et au Japon. La rapidité de ce retrait, qu'aucune raison strictement économique n'imposait, devait entrainer un assèchement des capacités de financement en France, et de la une récession. 

Six mois après ce sont les taux interbancaires de la zone Euro qui sont érodés, par des recherches de liquidités à toujours plus court terme par les banques. 

Prochains éléments à surveiller dans les mois à venir : 

1) l'évolution trimestrielle des prêts internationaux consolidés des banques françaises (créances consolidées), avec ventilation par pays sur lequel repose le risque final. 
La proportion des origines des risques est la suivante, pour fin décembre 2011 (source Banque de France, T4 2011, date de dernière publication : 25/04/2012) :

  • total des encours en risque ultime ; Créances sur l'étranger des banques à capitaux français : 2729033 M$
  • dont zone euro : 44,4%
  • paradis fiscaux : 2,1%
  • UK+US+paradis : 29,4%
  • BRICS : 4,9%

2) l'évolution trimestrielle des engagements passifs (Encours de prêts ou de dépôts) des banques françaises ventilés par pays : fin décembre 2011, ce montant pour les Etats-Unis avait en 6 mois diminué de 55% pour retomber au niveau de septembre 2004 ! A la fin de l'année dernière, les engagements vis à vis de US et UK représentaient encore 41% du total.
(source Banque de France, T4 2011, date de dernière publication : 25/04/2012).

Ces tendances peuvent se retrouver parmi tous les pays de la zone euro qui ont été attaqués depuis fin 2009. 

Notre anticipation est que l'imbrication financière réciproque entre US+UK et la zone euro va aller en diminuant rapidement, ce qui va rendre les attaques des "marchés" (...) sur la zone euro progressivement  moins efficaces. Le plus dur a déjà été fait depuis fin 2009, et la prise de conscience collective de la nécessité  politique absolue d'une intégration accélérée de la zone euro. Maintenant nous avons une bonne feuille de route depuis fin le sommet européen de fin juin 2012 (même si il reste encore à y développer le volet social et démocratique). Je vous en parlerai à la rentrée.

Bons devoirs de vacances !

2012/06/29

How long does it take to build federalism ?

 A brief reminder about U.S. history  teachs us building federalism took 14 years, with a military war as a booster for this process :

Tensions between American colonials and the British during the revolutionary period : 1760s and early 1770s.

American Revolutionary War : 1775 to 1781. 
  • The Continental Congress established a Continental Army under the command of George Washington : June 14, 1775
  • The Congress adopted the Declaration of Independence : July 4, 1776.
  • After the British defeat by American forces assisted by the French and Spanish, Great Britain recognized the independence of the United States: 1781

The Articles of Confederation established a weak confederal government that operated from 1777 until 1789.

Those wishing to establish a strong federal government with powers of taxation organized a constitutional convention in 1787. 

The United States Constitution was ratified in 1788.

The new republic's first Senate, House of Representatives, and president —George Washington— took office in 1789.

These steps and speed have to be compared with similar current EU federalism process and speed, with currently a monetary war as a booster. This process is the birth of the new Euroland sovereign. Humans are not born in a single minute, and a new sovereign entity is not born in a single year, even taking into account the pregnancy or gestation period.

2011/09/27

Operation Twist Redux revisited

 Fed's last operation Twist Redux is one of those events which cause immediately brutal movements on the markets (over reacting), but can only be analyzed a few days afterwards.
Some bloggers are willing to see an offensive monetary policy behind this operation, targeted towards all others majors currencies at the same time : "risk-off" strategy, reversal of carry trade, capital inflows, commodity deflation, and we can even read "king dollar is back".

Some facts are important to remember :
1) original operation Twist I (aka Operation Nudge, 21 Feb 1961-1965) was a defensive experiment for improving US balance of payments because US had to sell gold at an unsustainable rate.  
3) the Fed’s QE2 programme was comparable in size, at around 4% of total Treasury and agency-backed debt. It allows a 28% stock rally during few months, but without noticeable positive effects on Main Street, unemployment and foreclosures. Inflation was allowed to growth, too.
4) another Twist-like operation was run by the Fed... in 2009. Results are known : Wall Street rally but Main Street problems became bigger and deeper. The crisis became more and more a social one.
5) One of the most noticeable movement this time was gold and silver go down.
But if gold market was down during 2 days in a row, it only reached back to 11 August 2011 price level :

source: goldprice.org (clic to enlarge)

Gold price remains since 1971 a very significant trend. Operation Twist II has not changed this in any way. And you can see since 9/27 gold price is up again.

We may see a rally on Wall Street stocks. But like in 60's and in 2009, Fed's last quantitative easing programme will not produce any change in the real world, either for Main Street (commodities, unemployment, down lifestyle), and for inflation in US. Stay tuned to the gold market to verify this day after day, specially during 2012 election campaign.

2011/06/26

How to replace the world trade reference currency ?

In order to contribute to answer this question, we have chosen to study facts in recent history, i.e. the replacement of Pound Sterling by US dollar during the XXth century. It is difficult to find accurate information about how this change occurred. Central Banks' archives are not available to the general public. But a recent work by Schenk[1] shed new light on this question.

We will introduce relevant data aggregates coming from IMF to figure out the current status and the dire anticipated future for the US dollar.

From a reserve currency to a dominant currency

First, Schenk has pointed to the need to distinguish the reference currency used for the usual international trade from the dominant currency in central banks reserves. The currency used for the international trade is a simple political choice, based on the known currency stability at this time. US dollar was chosen in Bretton Woods, 1944.

Second, the choice of world trade reference currency has only little link with the current dominant currency in central banks reserves. Read the sentence on page 4, Ref[1]: "...the dominant reserve currency shifted from sterling to the USD and back again during the inter-war period." [2]
Technically, this currency used for the international trade can be replaced in a few months with the current computing systems. After the decision is taken at an international level, we only need to modify the currency used in some few key markets including oil, commodities, gold.
The replacement of Sterling by the US dollar has occured when the US$ was less than 30% of central banks reserves. This replacement has driven a huge deflationary pressure onto the Sterling, at this time the dominant reserve currency. This is the reason why a strategic partnership was introduced between US and UK. But also, multiple monetary cooperations have been deployed by the main central banks to avoid a rapid collapse of Sterling. This transition occurred during several tens of years (see graphic below) when we saw the Sterling depreciate slowly step by step, like if we release steam pressure. If this transition has taken so long, we can be sure it was the only way to protect UK banking system (and its owners), who agreed, in return, to change UK policy into a strong ally of US on every future subjects.

clip_image002
(clic to zoom)

We can draw several conclusions from this historical comparison relevant for our times :
  • First, the second dominant reserve currency deserves a deep attention (see next part below). This currency does not need to become the first dominant reserve currency before becoming the world reference currency
  • Second, as soon as the world trade reference currency has officially changed, an enormous force is liberated leading to the devaluing of the previous reference currency, because it is less used hence less needed into central banks reserves. A lot of people then want to sell a lot of this currency. We can even precise that the speed of devaluing is not in the hands of its emitting country. It is fully in the hands of others central banks who own large assets in this currency. They must negotiate successfully in order to avoid a brutal currency collapse. This deal must be executed during tens of years to release the deflationary pressure step by step, using small devaluings. In our times, the big owners of US dollar reserves, apart Fed, are China, Japan, Gulf Countries, and some countries in Europe. How much of them are nowadays really willing to avoid the US dollar collapse at any price, and have the economy in good health to support this transition's weight during so long ?
  • Third, UK situation up to 1945 was very different than the US current situation, see sovereign debt and unemployment ratio, public services and industrial investments, military infrastructure to sustain. International relations were fully different : UN, IMF were created at this time, and currently UN, G20 and IMF have not succeeded in enforcing any real solution about the global systemic crisis and about the monetary disequilibrium. That's why monetary strategies used for decades to move from Sterling to US dollar and support Sterling with a long transition period cannot be used today.

The dollar, Euro and Unallocated reserves in central banks

We made some simple calculations based on last available IMF COFER data[3], to figure out the different currencies total reserves. Here we want to compare data available for all countries together, for advanced economies, for emerging and developing economies, for USA alone, and for Hong-Kong chinese special administrative region.

1) Composition and growth of official reserve assets (or total foreign exchange holdings) between 1999 and 2011

bilan2
(clic to zoom)

The main facts to notice are :
  • Total foreign exchange holdings have increased much more from 2001 to 2007 than from 2007 to 2011 in any countries groups
  • This growth is always much bigger in Emerging and developing economies than in Advanced economies
  • Hong Kong and USA have fully different growth patterns compared to any countries groups : a weaker growth between 2001 and 2007, and a much stronger between 2007 and 2011 (see yellow cells)
  • The Unallocated reserves[4] are quickly becoming the dominant share of official reserve assets in the world, including China
They counted for 22% of world total foreign exchange holdings in 2001, 37% in 2007, 45% in Q4 2010. Growth of the Unallocated reserves is much stronger than growth of allocated reserves anywhere between 2001 and 2011 (see blue cells). Once again, this trend is much bigger in Emerging and developing economies. They own now 91% of all unallocated reserves in the world, when advanced economies own only 9% (see rows : "% unallocated in the world" ).
  • The Emerging and developing economies owns 2 third of the world total foreign exchange holdings. From 38% of the total in 2001, this share climbs to 59% in 2007 and 67% in 2011.
  • The Fed owns a tiny and a shrinking share of world total reserve assets
From 4.1% in 2000, this share has shrunk to 1.2% in 2007. Even with the massive QE program and Treasuries purchases by the Fed since 2008, this share is currently still only 1.5%. They are half of Hong-Kong's reserves since 2001 (see violet cells).

2) Composition and growth of allocated reserves in Euro, dollar and SDR currencies between 1999 and 2011

bilan3
(clic to zoom)

Knowing that allocated reserves represent only 55% of world total reserves assets in Q4 2010, the main facts to notice are :
  • Growth for world claims in US dollar is significantly lower than growth for world claims in euros, and continously since 2001. It is even lower than growth for claims in SDR[5] basket currencies in the same period. This trend is observed for advanced economies as well for the Emerging and developing economies (see green cells).
  • If world claims in dollar represent currently 61% (respectively 26% for Euros) of world total allocated reserves, they represent only 34% of world total foreign exchange holdings (respectively 15% for Euros). This means that the exact composition of currencies into the Unallocated Reserves have a decisive weight to determine the really dominant currency in world reserves (see rose cells). Said differently, it could be possible that today already the dominant currency in reserves would actually be Euro. At least, we can only say that dollar is currently only the supposed dominant currency in world reserves.
  • The share of claims in Euro in allocated reserves is similar in advanced economies and in Emerging economies, and same for claims in dollar. (see rows "euros / total allocated reserves" )
  • The difference between claims in dollar and claims in Euros is lower in Emerging economies (64 - 25%) than in Advanced economies (58 – 28%). Said differently, the Emerging economies are willing to report the claims in Euros (instead in dollar) more often than the Advanced economies.
These graphs[6] summarize the situation of the claims in Euros and dollar (clic to zoom) :

clip_image008
clip_image010

And the following graph summarizes the question around the currently dominant reserve currency. It is relevant because of the dominant share of Emerging economies in the world reserves :

clip_image012
(clic to zoom)

Let's have a look now on claims in SDR basket currencies. These shares allow us to compare a little more precisely between US and Hong-Kong reserves, because they report the claims in SDR basket currencies but not in dollar or in euros.
It is important to note that "The initial weights assigned to each currency in the SDR basket have been adjusted to take account of changes in the share of each currency in world exports of goods and services and international reserves."[7] In this respect, Euro share is 37.4% and dollar share is 41.9%.

bilan4
(clic to zoom)

Knowing that allocated reserves represent only 55% of world total reserves assets in Q4 2010, the main facts to notice are :
  • The share of Yen and Sterling in reserves is tiny in any group of countries.[8] This means that trends observed using claims in Euro and dollar are still valid.
  • The Hong-Kong's central bank has started to diversify in others currencies since 2007 (it could be asian neighbors currencies, Ruble, Real…). This share currently remains small.
  • The Fed does not claim any asset in Canadian Dollar, or Mexican Peso.
  • The Fed's share of claims in SDR basket currencies in the world represent nearly half of Hong-Kong's one.
  • The growth of claims in SDR basket currencies has suddenly increased (108%) between 2007 and 2011 in US, more than in any group of countries, and even more than Hong-Kong.

People are running faster than bankers

UN and IMF has already published papers about the unavoidable move from US dollar as the world trade reference currency in the following years. Since years, the question is not about IF, but about HOW and WHEN.
From our article's perspective, we can say that the transition period for the US dollar will be fully different compared to the Sterling's one.[9a]
Currently most central banks have only one ideology : how to sustain US dollar reference currency 20 years more, to mitigate their own risks and allow a managed transition towards a (still to be internationally decided) next reference currency or basket of currencies ?
The problem is that the social situation in most countries is so bad[9] that people will never give the time to this 20 years long strategy to maturate and be executed. More and more people in the world become conscious that central banks' interests are opposite to theirs. This will also influence many central banks to not support the strategy decided by the currently leading central banks so far (US and UK).  
This is the main reason why a managed transition to replace US dollar will not take place, and therefore why US dollar will collapse.
The question of WHEN this will take place has already been discussed by LEAP[10] , Lee Adler (see also interview part 2 on ZeroHedge) , Edwin Vieira and others. The collapse is a process which will take some months to complete, not a single day. It  could start as early as in next coming months, or next few years depending on extraordinary monetary decisions (QE3 or similar massive bond purchases, first limited dollar devaluation, tentative short period of hyperinflation...), public results of audit of the Fed or US gold reserves, or massive social unrest in the US.



[1] "The Retirement of Sterling as a Reserve Currency after 1945: Lessons for the US Dollar ?", Catherine R. Schenk, Canadian Network for Economic History conference, 10/2009.
[2] followed by a reference : B. Eichengreen and M. Flandreau, ‘The rise and fall of the dollar, or when did the dollar replace sterling as the leading international currency?’, NBER Working Paper 14154, 2008.
[3] IMF, March 2011 ; At the present, 33 advanced economies and 105 emerging or developing economies report most of their allocations to COFER. Because COFER full data for China mainland are not available, we choose to compare also with Hong-Kong chinese special administrative region data. The "All IMF reporting countries" rows include China mainland figures.
[4] Unallocated reserves represent the total reserves of non reporting countries to COFER, and any discrepancy between countries’ data on total reserves as reported to COFER and to IFS. This covers more than 180 countries.
[5] The SDR was redefined as a basket of currencies, today consisting of the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling, and U.S. dollar. In the tables, "claims in SDR basket currencies" means the sum of the claims in dollar, euro, Yen, Sterling.
[6] NowAndFutures.com, 06/2011.
[7] IMF, 12/30/2010.
[8] It can be estimated as the difference between claims in SDR basket currencies and claims in euros, minus claims in dollar.
[9a] For another graphical view of this transition, we can refer to the US debt to GDP ratio since 1900, and UK debt to GDP since 1692.
[10] "Last warning before the Autumn 2011 shock, when $15 trillion of financial assets go up in smoke” G.E.A.B number 56, Laboratoire Européen d’Anticipation Politique, june 2011.


Update 18th of July 2011 :
This article has already been read by many persons from 46 countries !
Here is a summary of the main readers location :

(clic to enlarge)
Update 20th, 22nd, 25th of July :
added  new countries and significant towns : Bangkok (Thailand), New Delhi (India), Warsaw (Poland), Tunis (Tunisia), Hanoi (Vietnam), Geneva (Switzerland), Ljubljana (Slovenia) for a total of 51 different countries ;  31 states and 114 different towns in the United States.

Update 21st of August :
new total of 55 different countries.

Update 07/26/2013 :
updated data can be found on these pages :

Excerpts from The Gold Basis 




Excerpts from The Federal Reserves's Dashboard

Update 05/19/2014 :
Because of this original article, IMF has finally decided to communicate more transparently about these unallocated reserves (see also here). No, IMF: you do not need to thank me.

World: shares of unallocated reserves

 World and EM countries: shares of unallocated reserves


2008/10/16

Guerre financière : Offensive de l’Europe

image Un des signes évidents de la dimension historique de la crise actuelle est la reconfiguration accélérée des alliances géo-stratégiques, que nous avons commencé à évoquer.
La semaine dernière l’Islande s’est tournée vers la Russie, désormais premier producteur mondial de pétrole brut devant l’Arabie Saoudite;
Puis l’Angleterre a nationalisé ses principales banques, agissant de manière opposée au Plan Paulson des USA, et contrariant des décennies de politique d’acquiescement à Washington.
24 heures plus tard c’est toute l’Europe qui prenait ce chemin des politiques de nationalisations préventives. Même la Suisse est maintenant passé à l’acte avec le plan gouvernemental de sauvegarde forcée de UBS, au grand dam des patrons de ces banques.
Et aujourd’hui c’est l’annonce attendue de l’Europe unie de s’engager vers Bretton Woods III avant la fin de l’année 2008 (!), mettant ainsi un terme effectif à toute allégeance envers la domination financière unilatérale des Etats-Unis. Même l’Italie de Berlusconi se joint au mouvement, ce qui est encore un signe d’isolement politique et diplomatique actuel des Etats-Unis.
Je parle bien de Bretton Woods 3 et non pas la politique financière internationale dite Bretton Woods 2 et qui existe déjà de manière informelle depuis 1995.
Les déclarations européennes n’y vont pas par 4 chemins, notamment sur les paradis fiscaux:
Treatment of tax havens such as the Cayman Islands and Monaco may be overhauled as part of any new global financial framework, Sarkozy said.
``It will be part of discussions Saturday in Washington,'' the French leader said. ``Will we continue to work with tax havens? It's a valid question. We've passed into a new era. It's a question we'll put on the table and immediately.''
Il ne s’agit rien de moins que de mettre sous un contrôle effectif national et régional les 30 plus grands banques du monde. Goldman Sachs, la chasse gardée de Paulson, ayant récemment acquise le status d’établissement bancaire, devrait normalement faire partie de la liste.
Cette demande de contrôle renforcée contraste avec l’attitude de AiG qui cherche à diminuer les volontés régulatrices sur le marché des crédits hypothécaires.
Le rendez-vous du 18 octobre entre messieurs Bush, Sarkozy (président du conseil européen pour 6 mois) et Barosso (président de la Commission Européenne) sera bien interessant à suivre.

2008/10/14

La guerre financière entre l’Europe et les USA

Pourquoi le plan Paulson ne faisait aucune mention précise des banques à qui le Trésor achèterait les titres dépréciés ?
Pourquoi, alors que le Congrès a été tellement pressé de rendre une décision, l’utilisation précise de ces fonds n’avait toujours pas été communiquée, malgré la descente aux enfers de la semaine dernière ?
Pourquoi l’Europe vient d’adopter un plan très différent du plan Paulson, où les états investissent dans les banques mais ne rachètent que très peu leurs titres dépréciés ?
image
Pourquoi dans la foulée de l’annonce européenne le Trésor US utilise enfin une bonne partie des fonds (250 des 700 milliards), mais justement pas pour simplement racheter des titres douteux ?
imageimage
Un élément de réponse avec un extrait de cet article :
Europe 'forced our hand'
The Treasury's plan would help the United States catch up to Europe in what has become a footrace between countries to reassure investors that their banks will not default, or that other countries will not one-up their rescue plans and, in so doing, siphon off bank deposits or investment capital.
"The Europeans not only provided a blueprint, but forced our hand," said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard and an adviser to John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate. "We're trying to prevent wholesale carnage in the financial system."
On pourra également lire celui-ci, beaucoup plus incisif sur le rôle de “Paulson et ses copains”, dont Georges Ugieux avait fait quelques allusions à demi-mot.
En définitive, avec l’euphorie des bourses depuis hiers, est-ce que la situation du crédit interbancaire s’est améliorée ?
S&P 500 Financial Index : un peu mieux mais ca demande confirmation !image
Indice de volatilité : bonne orientation mais encore très loin de la normale
image
idem pour le JPM G7
image
par contre ca n’est pas la même histoire pour le TED Spread : un “haut plateau permanent” ?
image
USD swap OIS 3 mois…
image
… et Libor USD 3 mois
image
La différence entre le Libor et le swap OIS stagne également, à une valeur stratosphérique.
Reste le spread CP A2/P2 – AA, mais la Reserve Fédérale n’a pas encore mis à jour les données pour la journée du 13…
En conclusion, je dirai qu’on a plutôt affaire depuis hier à un rebond technique des bourses, et que beaucoup de choses doivent encore se jouer en coulisses.
Mise à jour :
Mish et Roubini ont annoncé quelques heurs après eux aussi la fin du rally (hausse technique des bourses).
Mise à jour 2 :
La Fed a MAJ les données du spread Discount Rate : il n'y a pas de valeurs données pour la journée du 13/10 dans les archives (pourquoi donc ?), et pour le 14 on a toujours des valeurs à 30 jours extrêmement élevées :

moz-screenshot-2

2008/10/08

Comprendre la crise monétaire


Pour vraiment comprendre ce qui se passe ces derniers jours sur les marchés financiers, je vous conseille ces lectures :
Comme prévu par plusieurs think-tanks depuis longtemps, la crise financière a accouché d'une crise monétaire, avec des conséquences macro-économiques d'une toute autre ampleur. Et évidemment avec un contrecoup sur les bourses.

Ca me donne l'occasion de vous donner un autre indicateur cette fois pour la fièvre monétaire, le JPMorgan G7 Volatility Index :

5Y history up to 08/11/2012

History up to 02/08/2012



2008/10/06

L’Europe face à la crise financière

Ce week-end a été l’occasion d’une mise en évidence des disparités des réactions en Europe face à la crise financière et économique qui frappe désormais notre continent de manière évidente, comme en témoigne le crack de ce lundi mais surtout l’évolution depuis 15 jours de la parité euro-dollar :

La réaction des gouvernements en Europe est d’abord partie de la périphérie, hors de la zone Euro :


2008/09/29

L'Europe prépare la "refondation du système financier international"


Suite à son discours à l'ONU, Nicolas Sarkozy a annoncé il y a quelques heures que l'Europe se mettait à plancher sérieusement sur le système financier "dans les prochains jours".

Sont fermement invités à la séance de travail préparatoire, avant de rencontrer les autres pôles du système financier international :
  • les 4 pays Européens du G8 (France, Allemagne, Italie et Royaume-Uni),
  • José Manuel Barroso (président de UE),
  • Jean-Claude Juncker (président de l'Eurogroupe) ,
  • Jean-Claude Trichet (président de la BCE),
  • et Nicolas Sarkozy (représentant la France et président du Conseil de l'Europe)
Mr Sarkozy a annoncé une initiative pour une régulation financière largement renforcée :
"Reconstruisons ensemble un capitalisme régulier et régulé où des pans entiers de l'activité financière ne sont pas laissés à la seule appréciation des opérateurs de marché, où les banques font leur métier. Le métier des banques, c'est de financer le développement économique plutôt que la spéculation"
Sans arriver à une extrémité d'une économie entièrement dirigiste, les meilleurs économistes du monde, tel Stiglitz, s'accordent depuis de nombreuses années sur la nécessité impérative de l'intervention du régulateur pour la bonne santé des marchés.

A signaler que les prix Nobel Joseph Stiglitz et Amartya Sen avaient été embauchés par le président français en janvier dernier pour proposer une meilleure définition que le PIB de la richesse produite par un pays. Les mauvaises perspectives présentes et à venir sur le PIB de la plupart des pays vont sans doute accélérer pour l'ensemble de la société le changement de référentiel, qui saura promouvoir d'autres valeurs fédératrices utiles en temps de crise. Nous ne pouvons plus soutenir un modèle de croissance basé sur une définition purement productiviste, en écartant la richesse sociale. Le modèle du court-terme purement comptable est acculé aujourd'hui à la faillite de manière éclatante.

C'est une chance unique pour la sphère politique de recouvrer une nouvelle légitimité, tous horizons confondus, si elle sait se saisir de l'occasion pour se remettre en question avec un réel projet et une vision politique, en prenant rapidement ses distances avec les milieux financiers. Mr Sarkozy semble l'avoir bien compris depuis quelques jours. Sa position est bien plus confortable que celle de Mr Obama qui ne peut pas prendre des postures aussi fermes tant qu'il n'est pas élu, et qui devra gérer la tentation militaire dans un pays économiquement à genoux.



2008/09/22

l’URSS a gagné la guerre froide

…et elle étend désormais son modèle économique à tous les pays de l’Ouest. Il est donc maintenant interdit de vendre à découvert les actions de nos camarades financiers.
En tout cas, si vous aviez des interrogations sur les actions à acheter-acheter-acheter toujours parce que la divine main invisible du marché pur et parfait les rend infaillible, on vous simplifie le choix.