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2014/04/10

The golden age of our times is the age of gold


Towards a new international monetary system - Part 2.

[Ceci est la traduction en anglais de l'article original écrit en français]


We first established in January 2013 the need to resolve the problem of the international monetary system, and its absolute priority. [1] 

We then proposed in May 2013 a strategy to effectively prepare the necessary resilience to support the change in the international monetary system. [2] The various official announcements over the past months have largely confirmed that this anticipation was shared. [3] 

The synthesis of this strategy was again stressed by Laurence Brahm on 21/10/2013: 
It is not the complete removal of the old Bretton Woods financial architecture but rather the creation of a new parallel structure to the old. Eventually, countries will be able to choose which architecture is better suited to their own plans for reconstruction and renovation. " [4] 
The Golden Age (Zucchi)
This week of March 2014 where I release this article sees an important step in international relations. It is nothing less than discussing the 2015 framework and choosing between the repetition of the Vienna Conference in 1815 (the Concert of Nations) or Yalta Conference in 1945 (the Cold War) that will support the “new rules of the game in international politics“. [5] 

In fact, this week in Europe a large number of high level bilateral meetings take place: 
·                     President Xi with the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, François Hollande, Angela Merkel then with the European Commission president [6] 
·                     President Obama with President Xi, and then he has extended his trip at the last minute to meet the Heads of State of the Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, UAE, South Korea, Japan, then a meeting with the Pope in Rome and a meeting with the King of Saudi Arabia. [7] Not to mention a planned meeting with Mr Barroso and Van Rompuy [8] 
·                     The G7 meeting on the sidelines of the Nuclear Security Summit in 2014 
·                     And other bilateral meetings, more or less official and prepared, among other heads of state following their presence at the Nuclear Security Summit 2014.
Officially the goal is mostly to talk about the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea, or to sign some contracts. The public communiques will mention them. 

We believe that other issues, much more important but related, will be discussed : those around the current reorganization of the new international monetary and financial system. [8.1]
Marketable U.S. Treasuries held by the Fed in custody for Foreign Official and International Accounts; till 3/26/2014; 
(Sources: St Louis Fed, Conscience-Sociale.org)

Our analysis is that the Ukrainian crisis was triggered by the U.S. deep state in preparation for the introduction of this next reorganization. [9] This is to retain the EU in the area of U.S. domination. [9.1] 

The time has come to clarify what we mean by new international monetary and financial system. 
We believe this is not only about launching what is already announced: 
·                     A Development Bank for BRICS parallel to the World Bank 
·                     A BRICS stabilization fund parallel to the IMF 
·                     New bilateral trade agreements parallel to the WTO 
but to go much further. 

Firstly, BRICS Development Bank is becoming a "Bank initiated by BRICS for the development of all interested parties" and whose governance is open to any state wishing to join with the framework agreement. [9.2] 

Secondly, and this is the most innovative part: it is to create another institution parallel to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
This is the oldest international financial institution fully governed by the West (6 permanent members and founders are the central banks of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, UK and USA, which can have a double voting weight - analogy with Obama's meetings this week is not a coincidence [10]) 

BIS is the central bank of central banks, that is to say, it organizes and manage trade between them ... especially those concerning physical gold. Activities related to financial regulation (the famous Basel Committee rules) were added much later, after the existence of the bank became public when it was kept secret since its inception. [10.7]

The first problem to solve for the overhaul of the international monetary and financial system is not really the choice of a new currency. This is only a means. This is primarily to ensure price stability and the development of international trade. Otherwise, the only alternative is endless war for resources that are increasingly scarce. It is therefore necessary to separate the problem of a reference currency for international trade, from that of a reserve currency for central banks.

Global geopolitical dislocation following the 2008 crisis has cut the Gordian knot: there is no need any more to make a decision for all countries (which has blocked reform for many years [10.6]). Now BRICS countries have the initiative and willingness to move forward. This will is the key factor as we wrote: [10.9]
The global geopolitical context is characterized primarily by a tilt after reaching the tipping point: the decline of the American empire on the one hand and the rise of the multipolar initiative led by BRICS on the other. Because they are so desperately lacking in autonomy of decision and willingness, the EU and Japan find themselves buffeted by this tidal wave of history. 
The choice is made for several years, international trade will be based on gold [10.3]. 

How will this happen in practice? Not with boats or trucks loaded with bullions, of course. As we said a "second BIS" was designed that can manage a clearing house for payments (settlements) in physical gold, especially to add to it a fundamental function to allow again international settlements for goods using "Real Bills" (a.k.a. Gold Bills), as recommended by the New Austrian School of Economics. In his work Professor Fekete described these Gold Bills as being “destined to be settled in gold coins that are made available after the ultimate consumer surrenders them in exchange for finished consumer goods upon maturity”. [10.4] Their issue is strictly limited by the orders received to buy goods. They allow increasing the money velocity without systematically using coins and without any risk of inflation. [10.1] 

This is far from a simple "100% gold" standard.

Gold is the only money (gold - silver ratio must float) as everyone knew for millennia. Today most people have more or less forgotten this unique role, but not Western central bankers who have tried for a century to put lipstick on a pig, so to speak. [10.8] By deceiving us, they deceived themselves and began to believe their own nonsense. A historical failure and on a global scale. Alas, alas, it is a failure of the European spirit. We need to recognize it in order to find the impetus beneath our feet allowing us to arise from the depth of this graveyard by the sea. [10.2] 

BRICS countries do not necessarily need the West to initiate this new settlement system. [10.5] It must be noted in this respect what it can supersede. The dollar currency and U.S. Treasury at the foundation of famous "petrodollars" are replaced by the Gold Bills that will allow buying oil for example. [11] It is the function of reference currency for international trade. 
But US Treasuries have a function of income related to their mid/long term interest rate too - it is also a fatal flaw in this system. This is the second problem: the choice of the reserve currency for central banks.

The new system offers very smartly to decouple these two functions. The income function can be brought (at appropriate time) by introducing gold bonds, that is to say bonds denominated in gold weight, with interests denominated in gold weight and whose principal is redeemable in gold weight (ie not merely an obligation backed by a collateral gold and denominated in fiat currency – a.k.a. gold backed bonds). Again, we must have an institution for the issuance of these bonds. 

Note that to start, it is not necessary to replace any national currency by gold coins. The gold bills will circulate in parallel of currencies, and user confidence in these currencies will be reflected in real time in the local price of that currency measured in mg of gold (that is to say, the inverse of the ‘price of gold’ measured in the currency, which is the usual vision that we have - a totally wrong perception because you can not measure the length of a bar with a rubber-band: you must take the opposite approach). Hence the fundamental importance of not having rigged gold markets as currently in New York and London. [12]


Price of one U.S. dollar in mg of fine gold between 1968 and 3/24/2014
(Sources: St Louis Fed, LBMA, Conscience-Sociale.org )

The U.S. have no way to prevent BRICS countries to launch this parallel system, a competitor of the one based on U.S. Treasury bond, and which finally obliterate their attraction.  

The only remaining choice as new rules for American decision-makers (that is to say, the public state and the deep state) are the following, as they are standing with their back to the wall [12.2]: 
·                     either to accept an open cohabitation  of two parallel systems, with 100% of the players who know that the dollar system can not be competitive (very quickly one system will endure and all U.S. Treasury assets going up in smoke). Modestly this is called "asset restructuring in U.S. bonds market." This is the path of Vienna in 1815. [12.1] 
·                     or not to accept this open cohabitation, that is to say close the door to hide behind and build a wall as high as possible so that no one can escape from the dollar zone. For this area can last as long as possible (while being doomed because of deflation), it must be the largest possible, and the EU is a tempting (with its remaining gold reserves) and very easy prey thanks to Atlantist governments and European Commission who are obediently following the interests of the American deep state. The strategy is therefore to make them sign the TTIP as soon as possible, which quickly convince them not repatriate their gold and abandon the euro (two currencies for the US-EU area only, is one too many) as they have already abandoned their sovereignty. This is the way of Yalta in 1945. [12.3] 

The next time you meet your President or Prime Minister, you now know which good question to ask him: what did he choose for us and that is supposed to commit all?
BRICS countries are reaching out to European peoples since 2009, and our governments show their disdain so far, preferring the shadows of the world before. [13] But it is not too late to think about our place in Europe and in the world, it remains few short months and the ticket can be taken since this week. Hurry up or repent. 
What is currently discussed off-line is however everybody's concern, and will commit us for a long time to come. Do not suffer without understanding.

An error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it.
(O.A. Battista, 1917-1995)

_______________________

[1] ‘La crise écologique globale exige une refonte du système monétaire international’, Conscience Sociale, 01/2013 ; This article was itself in the continuity of the fundamental question raised in 2011: 'How to replace the world trade reference currency', Conscience Sociale, 06/2011 

[2] a) 'Towards a new international monetary system - part 1', EN or FR version, Conscience Sociale, 2013 ; b) The first mention of this strategy can be found in the conclusion of 'La géoéconomie des Bons du Trésor US', Conscience Sociale , 12/2012 

[3] a) ‘China, Europe Agree on Currency Deal’, TheTrumpet.com ; b) ‘China's planned crude oil futures may be priced in yuan’, Reuters ; c) ‘India to resume paying Iran in Euros’, India Times ; d) ‘PBOC Says No Longer in China’s Interest to Increase Reserves’, Bloomberg ; e) ‘China’s central government has reportedly approved 12 new free trade zones, including ones in Tianjin and Guangdong’, The Diplomat ; f) ‘Harbinger: 23 countries begin setting up swap lines to bypass dollar’, The Examiner ; g) ‘FMI: La réforme de l'institution reste bloquée par Washington’, Les Echos ; h) ‘Dollar-based system is inherently unstable - The culprit is the dollar’, Financial Times ; i) ‘A Shanghaï, Pékin s'offre un laboratoire des réformes’, Le Monde ; j) ‘La banque de développement et le FMI des BRICS sont nés’, L’Express ; k) ‘Shanghai Free-trade Zone to lead on yuan reform’, South China Morning Post ; l) ‘IMF Quota and Governance Reform: Political Impulse Needed for Progress on Reform Process’, CIGI ; m) ‘South Korea, Australia ink US$ 4.5 billion currency swap agreement’, Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute ; n) ‘BRICS Bank: Caution is a good policy’, India&Russia Report ; o) ‘G20 regrets IMF reforms delay, India says can't wait for long’, Industan Times ; p) ‘Медведев: особую экономическую зону в Крыму будет курировать Козак’, RBC Daily ; q) ‘Gold trading to open up to foreigners in Shanghai’, SCMP, 03/2014; r) 'Russia without dollar - what are the risks?', pravda.ru, 03/2014 

[4] a) 'Les Brics veulent en finir avec l’extrémisme des marchés financiers’, RIA Novosti ; b) original article: 'БРИКС положит конец рыночному фундаментализму' RBC Daily

[5] a) R. Cohen, ‘International Politics: The Rules of the Game’, Longman Group United Kingdom, 1982 ; b) China's President Xi hence said this week: "China is firmly committed to ... building a new model of major country relations", Reuters, 03/2014 

[6] Le Parisien, 03/2014 

[7] The Guardian, 03/2014 

[8] European Council, 24/03/2014 

[8.1] For instance we should not ignore: a) 'Did Russia Just Move Its Treasury Holdings Offshore?', WSJ, 03/2014 ; b) 'Emerging Markets central banks sell US government bonds', Financial Times, 03/2014 

[9] a) ‘La crise ukrainienne, un événement de la politique profonde’, Conscience Sociale, 03/2014; b) For the exact definition of deep state see 'La politique profonde et l’Etat profond (deep deep politics and the State), Conscience Sociale, 03/2014 

[9.1] ‘Global systemic crisis-escalation in the US reaction for survival: trigger a cold war to make it easier to annex Europe’, Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin n°83, 03/2014 

[9.2] 'The Way Forward for the Brics New Development Bank ', All Africa , 03/2014 

[10] Obama and Cameron prepared this meeting last week: whitehouse.gov , 03/2014 

[10.1] Real Bills maturity is 91 days maximum. 


[10.3] 'Building a strong economic and financial security barrier for China - Actively build and implement national gold strategies', In Gold We Trust, 09/2013 

[10.4] a) For more details, you can read his recent announcement ‘Gold Bills Payable in Gold Sovereigns' AE Fekete, 03/2014 ; b) On the distinction between Gold Bills and Real Bills: ‘Interview with Prof. Fekete’, Daily Bell, 03/2014 

[10.5] The group formed by the BRICS is already sufficiently autonomous: 'Sanctions effect: Russia to change its Economic Partners... for the better', Russia Today , 03/2014 

[10.6] 'U.S. Dollar, Euro, Renminbi as invoicing currencies in international trade and as reserve currencies - A bibliography', Conscience Sociale

[10.7] Founded in 1930, its existence was publicly unveiled in 1977. Note also that according to the by-laws the small territory of the BIS building is not subject to Swiss law. Police or army can not have access. See also 'Tower of Basel: The Shadowy History of the Secret That Runs the World Bank', Adam LeBor , PublicAffairs, 2013 

[10.8] 'Bernanke Tells Congress: I Don’t Really Understand Gold' , Forbes , 07/2013; But they recognized themselves be burnt out: see Conscience Sociale, 08/2013 

[10.9] 'Focus' chapter in Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin No. 83, 03/2014 

[11] It should be noted in this respect that the BRICS countries have learn from the experience of purchases by India of Iranian oil using gold, through Turkish banks. This is a case of an unjust embargo imposed by the West proved to be a weakness that would lead to huge consequences. History is fond of this kind of irony. See a) WSJ , 02/2014 ; b) Foreign Policy , 02/2014 

[12] a) 'Sun Zhaoxue: The United States Intends To Suppress Gold To Ensure The Dollar’s Dominance', In Gold We Trust, 01/2014 ; b) The origin of this strategy date back to distant times. See for instance: 'Minutes of Secretary of State Kissinger’s Principals and Regionals Staff Meeting, Washington, April 25, 1974', in FOREIGN RELATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1973–1976, VOLUME XXXI, FOREIGN ECONOMIC POLICY, DOCUMENT 63 ; c) 'La Manipulation du Prix de l’Or', 24hgold, 09/2008 ; d) 'Barclays, Deutsche Bank Accused of Gold Fix Manipulation', Bloomberg, 03/2014 

[12.1] 'What the world needs is 19th century behavior', Russia in Global Affairs, 03/2014 

[12.2] 'L'implosion du marché COMEX et la dé-américanisation du monde’, Conscience Sociale, 10/2013 

[12.3] 'L'Union européenne: la nouvelle URSS', Vladimir Bukovsky

[13] ‘La dérive néo-conservatrice de la politique française’, Agile Democracy , 03/2014

2013/10/11

The day of the last Nobel Memorial Prize laureate in Economics

A small part of the population knows that the "Nobel Prize in Economics" is in fact the "Swedish Central Bank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel". There are many similarities between the selection for a regular Nobel Prizes and for the Swedish Central Bank Prize in Economic Sciences, and there is indeed a deliberate will to be consistently identified with them. 

But only a few persons remember that this Prize in Economics was first awarded in 1969, i.e. 68 years after the regular ones. 
Some brief statistics have been published about the laureates, by country in which are located the universities where they worked (cf references). I have updated these results to take into account the years 2011, 2012, 2013 : 


Okay, nice shoot from anglo-saxon scholars. Now with such an overwhelming share of first-class thinkers awarded for their achievements during their life-long careers (specially in macroeconomics domain), the U.S. and UK economies should be huge successes, shouldn't they ?

1- Mainstream economists (both Friedman's side and Keynes' side) are always very reluctant to confront their models and their past predictions with long term and updated data series.
Let's just have a look if they really won the match since 1960's :
  • How close to an exponential trend is the growth of U.S. Total Public Debt :
Source: Conscience-Sociale.org, using Fed data up to 2013Q1
  • How close to an exponential trend is the growth of Federal Total Public Debt (In 2013 Q1, it reached US$ 16.8 Trillion) :
Source: Conscience-Sociale.org, using Fed data up to 2013Q1
  • Interest rates in US and UK :
 

  • U.S. Net Export of Goods and Services :
  • Real Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index :
  • Consumer Price Index :
(note the log scale)
  • "Civilian Unemployed and Not Looking Ratio" is the proportion of the civilian non institutionalized population aged 16+ that is unemployed and not looking for work :
  • US Population receiving food stamps :
  • Ratio of Corporate dividends over wages & salary :
  • US total monetary base priced in tonnes of Gold :
  • 1 U.S. $ priced in mg of Gold :
  • Annual U.S. and UK output produced (GDP per capita) priced in troy ounces of gold :
Source: Conscience-Sociale.org; data series 1791-2012 from MeasuringWorth 

2- Observations:
* these results are the worse seen in recorded history. 

* The only "positive" result is the historical high and ever rising level of incomes only for the top 1% and above :

* the creation of Nobel memorial Prize in Economics was first announced in 1968, at the same time where neoconservatism in US appeared and neoliberal ideas started to develop.

* all mainstream commentators have analyzed the economical policy of the U.S. and UK to use neoliberals ("Chicago school") principles, and more Keynesian policies since 2008.

3- Then we can affirm :
- either the US/UK Nobel Memorial laureates in economics were listened by the US/UK governments, but others economists would have given better advices : the observed results prove their Prize was not deserved ;
- or the US/UK Nobel Memorial laureates in economics were listened by the US/UK governments, but others economists would not have been able to give better advices : then the observed results prove economics is still not a science, but only a art. The laureates then deserve an Oscar-like prize, but not a Nobel-like prize ;
- or the US/UK Nobel Memorial laureates in economics were not listened by the US/UK governments, despite the highest level of promotion and audience given, and the observed results prove their Prize was useless and all mainstream commentators were clueless ;

4- In any case, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics has proven that deep reforms are required in the way laureates are chosen, at least. Given  the historic and catastrophic failure of neoliberalism and therefore the huge loss of credibility of the whole mainstream economics, this will be surely been done.
But given the very low speed of reforms by EU academies, the lock by Swedish Central Bank from one side, and the current global shift of power from the other side, we can anticipate that BRICS will announce the creation of a new "Prize in Economics funded by a BRICS organisation" and elected by the BRICS academies, before any process reform for Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics takes place. This is an anticipated consequence of both the global geopolitical dislocation and the scientific crisis in economics.

We anticipate this announcement within 4 years at the latest, depending on the number of future laureates working in universities located in BRICS countries, or eventually from non mainstream school of economics (for instance A. Fekete from NewASoE but this award alone would finalize a paradigmatic change).

The day of this announcement will be the day of the last Nobel Memorial Prize laureate in Economics.

Updated 10/14/2013:
- including results of 2013 awards ;
- My congratulations to Shiller who is pursuing a good work using data and facts about the housing market., although I did not agree with his sale of the rights to build the Case-Shiller index to a private company.


References

2013/04/03

La ineluctable contra-revolución del pueblo norteamericano


Aquí está la introducción de mi artículo publicado este mes en la Revista de Anticipación Política (M.A.P.) número 8, que está disponible gratuitamente en varias traducciones: francés, inglés, alemán, español.

Tenga en cuenta que un artículo más largo que apareció en el M.A.P. también está disponible (en francés por el momento). Es la parte 2 de esta serie de artículos. (Part 1 is only released in english).
Actualizado 05/2014: Parte 3 ya está disponible.


La ineluctable contra-revolución del pueblo norteamericano

 (traddución: Lila Rosenman Cordeu)

La república norteamericana sufrió continuamente extraordinarias transformaciones desde septiembre de 2001. Debemos atribuir a esos cambios el nombre de revolución, o de golpe de Estado permanente, que ha llevado progresivamente las instituciones de la república estadounidense al rango de simples simulacros. Esta revolución es una Gran Regresión, es decir un movimiento que no se revertirá más que con la victoria de una contra-revolución llevada a cabo por el pueblo norteamericano, cuyos primeros signos de existencia ya se dejan ver. Al término de esta larga lucha, ninguna de las instituciones federales actuales no sobrevivirá sin ser, en el mejor de los casos, profundamente transformada.

La crisis sistémica global se traduce antes que nada por una crisis de statu quo, el cual caracteriza a una época en la que los cambios, aunque presentes y profundos son escasos y muy poco perceptibles en la superficie o en los medios masivos de comunicación. La crisis actúa entonces como una revelación, acelerando la transformaciones, pero conservando al mismo tiempo las tendencias más pesadas. Es por eso que es tan determinante examinar las evoluciones de la república americana bajo un ángulo dinámico, en lugar de limitarse a tomar la habitual fotografía estática de la situación.

Se pueden identificar cuatro fuerzas principales, a menudo antagónicas, de intensidad variable en el tiempo y cuyo resultado explica a cada instante la situación en el pasado, el presente y el futuro : 
  • la dinámica de la moral, que produce ideologías dentro de la sociedad ;
  • la dinámica social de intercambios entre individuos, producida por la ideología dominante (que incluye entre otros todos los elementos del análisis económico clásico) ;
  • la dinámica exterior, puesta en práctica por los otros países a través de relaciones (comerciales, financieras, monetarias, militares, políticas, etc.), entre gobiernos y organizaciones; la política extranjera apunta a influir en todas estas relaciones para obtener relaciones favorables a su país ; 
  • la dinámica política interna, producida por las relaciones entre los ciudadanos, las organizaciones y el gobierno federal, una de cuyas partes esenciales es la justicia.

Un pensamiento inadaptado al siglo XXI

La dinámica de la moral es la que evoluciona más lentamente. La producción y sobre todo la difusión de una ideología en la sociedad necesitan décadas. El neoliberalismo es dominante, y la ecología política es aún balbuceante en los EE.UU. En las esferas del poder, la ideología de los negocios ha borrado todo pensamiento alternativo.

[...]

Después de esta introducción se puede leer la parte restante y las referencias utilizadas en este artículo mediante la descarga de la Revista de Anticipación Política número 8. El artículo se encuentra páginas 11 a 17.

2013/04/02

Die Gegenrevolution des amerikanischen Volkes wird kommen


Hier ist die Einführung von meinen Artikel veröffentlicht in diesem Monat in der Magazin für Politische Antizipation (M.A.P.) Nummer 8, die frei verfügbar ist in mehreren Übersetzungen: Französisch, Englisch, Deutsch, Spanisch.

Bitte beachten Sie, dass eine andere Version dieses Artikels,  länger als der in der M.A.P., ist auch vorhanden aber nur in französisch für den Moment. Es ist Teil 2 dieser Serie von Artikeln. (Part 1 is only released in english).
Aktualisiert 05/2014: Teil 3 ist verhanden.



Die Gegenrevolution des amerikanischen Volkes wird kommen

(Übersetzung : Harald Greib)

Die amerikanische Republik hat sich seit dem September 2001 tiefgreifend verändert. Was geschah, ver-dient sehr wohl die Bezeichnung Revolution, oder besser noch, permanenter Staatsstreich, durch den nach und nach die Institutionen der Republik der Vereinigten Staaten zu leeren Hüllen verkamen. Diese Revolution ist ein gigantischer gesellschaftlicher Rückbau, der erst dann wieder umkehrbar gemacht werden kann, wenn dem amerikanischen Volk eine Gegenrevolution gelingt. Dafür sind schon heute die ersten Anzeichen zu erkennen. Nach einem langen Kampf werden die meisten Bundesinstitutionen aufge-hört haben zu existieren; es sei denn, es wäre ihnen gelungen, sich nachhaltig zu verändern.

Die weltweite umfassende Krise ist vor allem eine Krise des Status quo, also des Zustands, in dem die realen und tiefgreifenden Veränderungen wenig zahl-reich sind und dabei oberflächlich oder in den großen Medien kaum wahrnehm-bar. Die Krise zerreißt dann den Schleier und gibt den Blick frei auf die wahren Veränderungen und beschleunigt gleichzeitig die Dynamik der Veränderungen; die großen Tendenzen bleiben dabei unverändert. Deshalb ist es so wichtig, die Entwicklungen der amerikanischen Republik unter einem dynamischen Blickwin-kel zu betrachten, anstatt sich auf eine statische Bestandsaufnahme zu begren-zen, die lediglich wie ein Foto die aktuelle Situation zu einem ganz bestimmten Zeitpunkt darstellen kann.

Wir können vier entscheidende Kräfte identifizieren, die häufig gegeneinander wirken, die je nach Phase von unterschiedlicher Intensität sind, und die zusammen betrachtet zu jedem Moment verstehen lassen, warum die Situation in der Vergangenheit, der Gegenwart und der Zukunft so und nicht anders war, ist und sein wird: 
  • Die Moraldynamik, die in der Gesellschaft Ideologien entstehen lässt ;
  • die Sozialdynamik, also die Beziehungen zwischen Einzelpersonen entsprechend der dominierenden Ideologie (was unter anderem alle Elemente der klassischen ökonomischen Analyse einschließt) ;
  • Die Außendynamik, die von anderen Ländern ausgeht, indem sie die (wirtschaftlichen, finanziellen, monetären, militärischen, politischen usw.) Bezie-hungen zwischen Regierungen und Organisationen prägen; die nationale Außenpolitik versucht, diese Beziehungen so zu beeinflussen, dass aus ihnen positive Folgen für das eigene Land erwachsen ; 
  • die innenpolitische Dynamik als Folge der Beziehungen zwischen den Bürgern, den Organisationen und der Bundesregierung, von denen ein wichtiger Bereich die Justiz ist.

Eine Gedankenwelt, die nicht mehr ins 21. Jahrhundert passt

Die Moraldynamik ist diejenige, die sich am langsamsten entwickelt. Die Schaffung und vor allen Dingen die Verbreitung einer Ideologie in der Gesellschaft beansprucht Jahrzehnte. Der Neoliberalismus dominiert gegenwärtig und die politische Ökologie steht in den USA noch ganz am Anfang. In den Machtzir-keln hat die Ideologie, die die der starken Exekutive ist, jegliche alternative Gedankenwelt ins Abseits gedrängt.

[...]

Nach dieser Einführung Lesen Sie den verbleibenden Teil und die Referenzen für diesen Artikel indem Sie die kostenlose und neu veröffentlichten Magazin für Politische Antizipation Nummer 8 verwendet. Der Artikel wird Seiten 11 bis 17 angeordnet.

2013/03/30

The inevitable counter-revolution of the American people (The U.S. in 20th/21st c., Part 2)

Here is the introduction of my article published this month in the Magazine of Political Anticipation (M.A.P.) number 8, which is freely available in several translations: frenchenglishgerman, spanish.

Please note that another version of this article, longer than the one published in the M.A.P., is also available but only in french for the moment. This one represents the part 2 in this serie 'The U.S. in 20th/21st c.'.
Part 1 is here.

Updated 05/2014: Part 3 is now available.



The inevitable counter-revolution of the American people

(translation : Ian Shaw)

The American Republic has seen extraordinary and continuous changes since September 2001. We must call these changes a revolution, or a permanent coup, which has gradually rolled back the US Republic’s institutions to the level of simple charades. This revolution is a Great Decline, i.e. a movement which will only be reversed with the victory of a counter-revolution led by the American people, the first signs of existence of which are seeing the light of day. At the end of this long fight, none of the current federal institutions will survive without being, at best, deeply changed.

The global systemic crisis is, above all, reflected as a crisis of the status quo, which characterizes an era when changes, although present and deep-seated, are very few and far from perceptible on the surface or in the mainstream media. The crisis therefore acts as an unmasking, together with acceleration in the dynamics of change, while preserving the major trends. This is why it’s essential to examine the American Republic’s progression from a dynamic angle, instead of a frozen image usually limited to a snapshot of the situation. 
We identify four principal forces, often opposing, of time-varying intensity and the result of which at each instant explains the situation in the past, present and future: 
  • the dynamic of morals, which produces ideologies at the core of society ;
  • the social dynamic of exchanges between individuals, produced by the dominant ideology (which includes, amongst others, all the elements of classic economic analysis) ;
  • the external dynamic, that put to work by other countries through relations (trade, financial, monetary, military, political etc.) between governments and organizations; foreign policy aiming at influencing these relations to obtain effects favourable to the country ; 
  • the internal political dynamic, produced by the relationship between citizens, organizations and the federal government, and of which justice is an essential part.

A thought unsuited to the 21st century

The dynamic of morals is that which evolves the slowest. The creation and especially the airing of ideology in society require decades. Neoliberalism is dominant, and an environmental policy is still in its infancy in the US. In the corridors of power, the ideology of a strong executive has obliterated any other idea.

The progressive forces are disorganized and in the babble major media is reduced to only produce individual resistance strategies at best, otherwise warnings or wake-up calls for comfortably numb minds, but not political organizations to spread fundamentally new ideas of social justice. Religion only has a role as custodian, unlike what occurred in South Africa. Citizens are reduced to accumulating rations and ammunition whilst waiting for worst, and that’s why it’s what will happen.

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After this introduction you can read the remaining part and the references used for this article by downloading the free and newly released Magazine of Political Anticipation number 8. The article is located pages 11 to 17