Key Indicators for the Monetary War against Currencies

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Key Indicators for the Monetary (or Currency) War
charts and data series
(Tableau de bord du risque financier en zone euro)

0. General Remarks

Note 1 :
The yields shown below are relative to the so-called "secondary market", between any bank or financial institutions, at any time. 
In the primary market, central banks are auctioning their debt notes to a small number of selected banks (the primary dealers), at defined times (about every 4 months). The observed yield is always smaller than the current yield on the secondary market, or much much smaller if you take Greece.

Note 2 :
During financial crisis, negative short-term yields on government bonds are a sign of fear among investors. Many of them pulled money out of investments seen as risky, pouring cash into the safest securities they could find. Usually, it is short-term government debt, or gold.
This surge in demand pushes up prices. Yields, which move in the opposite direction, tumble sometimes below zero. Since then, negative yields on short-term government debt have happened somewhat regularly, partly reflecting the shrinking supply of investments that investors see as safe even as U.S. stock markets climb. (Source)

Note 3 :
The financial war against Euro currency during the 2010-2012 period was aimed to break EMU. Its goals were geoeconomical first. I named this a monetary war because monetary policies and financial instruments were heavily used on both sides on an unprecedented scale, and because the sides were strictly delimited by their own currency, like a flag. This war accelerated a lot the birth of a new sovereign country across EMU (i.e. political union), and it is called Euroland since 10 years by L.E.A.P/Europe2020. We have already announced since Sept. 2012 that Euroland has win, and this war is now officially over. But because of the trends we have analyzed, the war zone has just moved elsewhere : look for Japan, US, Israël, UK links in Research Notes menu on the right hand side.

[ sources of the charts : bloomberg.com ; tradingeconomics.com ; ECB ]


1-Government bond yield spreads for Eurozone

FRANCE GERMANY 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD



5Y data serie till 20121017

SPAIN GERMANY 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD


5Y data serie till 20121017

ITALY GERMANY 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD


5Y data serie till 10/17/2012

GREECE GERMANY 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD


5Y data serie till 10/05/2012

PORTUGAL GERMANY 10-YEAR YIELD SPREAD


5Y data serie till 10/17/2012

 EFSF / Germany and France OAT / Germany 10-year bond spreads

data series since 12/2009

data series till 3/15/2014 


2-Eurozone: 10Y government bond yields

10-Year government bond yield for eurozone countries, Oct 2009 - Feb 2013


Long-term interest rates are secondary market yields of government bonds with maturities of close to ten years. Each eurozone country is mentioned except Estonia.

10-Year government bond yield (US, GER, IT, SP), 1860- July 2012



5Y data serie till 11/26/2012

Data serie since 1998

Spain Govt Bond 10 Year acting as benchmark


Data serie since 1991

Portugal Govt Bond 10 Year acting as benchmark


Data serie since 1994

Italy Govt Bond 10 Year  acting as benchmark


Data serie since 1991

 German Govt Bond 10 Year  


Data serie since 1980

French Govt Bond 10 Year  OAT


Data serie since 1985

Contract Futures on France sovereign debt FOAT

* code  WKN : A1MAPW ; ISIN: DE000A1MAPW3 ; Euro-OAT-Futures ; introduced 04/13/2012.

* chart of its Turbo put certificate 1964N (NL0010112033) proposed by Royal Bank of Scotland (leverage 8.56).  Introduced on the market 04/23/2012, this product has been desactivated by RBS 05/31/2012.

Contract Futures on Germany sovereign debt BUND

* Euro-Bund futures : code (FGBL Z2)

Data serie between 4/13/2012 and 11/15/2012 (daily averages)

Data serie between 10/1/2009 and 11/15/2012 (monthly averages)

Finland Govt Bond 10 Year  

Data serie since 1991

Slovenia Govt Bond 10 Year  

Data serie since 2007

Slovakia Govt Bond 10 Year  

Data serie since 2000

Austria Govt Bond 10 Year  

Data serie since 1986

Belgium Govt Bond 10 Year  

Data serie since 1989

Netherlands Govt Bond 10 Year  

Data serie since 1988

Ireland Govt Bond 10 Year  

Data serie since 1984

 Euro area AAA government bonds yield curve

AAA-rated euro area central government bonds yield curveupdated daily (spot rates). Animated evolution available using menu on the left [Settings/See animation since...].

1 year cumulative data of Euro area yield curve.

The short term yields became negative only from the first days of July 2012, when ESM became operationnal, one year before the initial target date, and after ECB has lowered its main rate from 1% to 0.75% 

[The curve for UST is here]

The graphs about Euribor and EONIA are showing that the main last "market" attack started in June 2012.

10 Year Euro AAA government bond yield (2004-today) 



3-Eurozone: key macroeconomic indicators



4-Comparison of 10Y Government bonds yields & spreads for Eurozone and others countries

US:            
             
Data serie since 1912;


Japan:       
             
Data serie since 1984;

Switzerland:
               
Data serie since 1994

UK:            
               
Data serie since 1980;

Sweden:     
               
Data serie since 1987

Denmark :
Data serie since 1983

  Iceland :
Data serie since 2003

  Hungary :
Data serie since 01/1999

 Croatia :  
Data serie since 2008

Czech Rep.
Data serie since 2000

Romania : 
Data serie since 2007

Norway :    
Data serie since 1988

Poland :      
Data serie since 1999

Russia :     
Data serie since 2000

Brazil :      
Data serie since 2006

India :        
Data serie since 1994
                  
  
 China :     
Data serie since 2005

Hong-Kong
Data serie since 1996

South Africa
Data serie since 1997

Australia :  
Data serie since 1969

Turkey :   
Data serie since 2010

Canada :  
Data serie since 1985

South Korea
Data serie since 2000

Israel :     
Data serie since 2002

Vietnam : 
Data serie since 2007

Taïwan : 
Data serie since 1999

Philippines
Data serie since 2001

Pakistan :  
Data serie since 2002



5-CDS for sovereign debts

Credit-default swaps tied to sovereign debt typically fall as investors’ perceptions of creditworthiness rise and increase as they deteriorate.

iTraxx SovX indexes for CDS per geographic zone



EU 10-year CDS spreads

Source: ESRB

__________________________________

The indices below provide current key data on credit default swaps records registered in the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation's Trade Information Warehouse. These figures include aggregate gross notional positions for Warehouse records but not aggregate number of contracts (hence noted as Net notional). The notional values are represented as US dollar equivalents using the prevailing foreign exchange rates. Net Notional Values with respect to any single reference entity is the sum of the net protection bought by net buyers (or equivalently net protection sold by net sellers).
Charts following "CDS 5Y" mention are displaying 5 year CDS price for 1 year moving, not the net notional value (this one was available only as a link in the section title, but the link is dead since Bloomberg.com reduced its free content).
5 year data serie till 10/22/2012

3 year data serie till 10/22/2012


 CDS 5 years for Latvia (USD)

5 year data serie till 10/22/2012








U.S. CDS 5Y, price in USD

US 5Y CDS, price in euro; data serie 10/04/2008 - 10/04/2013

US 5Y CDS, price in euro; data serie 01/2008 - 07/2011

US 1Y CDS; data serie 10/2008 - 10/2013; source

US 1Y and 5Y CDS; data series 01/2010 - 07/2011

data series 01/2008 - 02/2010



UK 5Y CDS and US 5Y CDS; data series 04/2007 - 04/2009

Japan Credit Default Swaps   


Russia Credit Default Swaps   

CDS 5Y, price in USD

China Credit Default Swaps  

CDS 5Y, price in USD

Brazil Credit Default Swaps  


Argentina Credit Default Swaps  


Bloomberg.com stopped publishing freely this updated png chart after 03/23/2012 and after 05/09/2012 for some others followed indices below. Then end of 01/2014 they stopped publish any png chart about CDS for sovereign debt. 






Ukraine Credit Default Swaps  

CDS 5Y

Bulgaria Credit Default Swaps  


Hungary Credit Default Swaps  


Venezuela Credit Default Swaps  


U.S. Banks Credit Default Swaps Average