The U.S. Debt Dashboard [Key Indicators of the U.S. Budget, Spendings and Debt Holders]

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WARNING 3/10/2014:
The St Louis FED has decided to fully modify all FRED graphs layout. Starting 3/17/2014 a few graphs in this page may become deprecated because FRED new sharing functions (to share a graph as an image or as an embedded graph) are broken or not usable.



If you prefer to browse a book instead of this (huge) page you can buy the 1$ Kindle book by C.Chantrill "US Government Spending: History, Facts and Charts of Spending, Taxes and Debt, Federal, State and Local, 2014 Edition".

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    The United States Debt Dashboard
    Budget, Spending and Debt Holders


    1. Introduction: Main Aggregates of the United States Total and Public Debts

    U.S. Total Credit Market debt owed (public + household + corporate)  

    • Total TCMDO = debt owed by domestic financial sector + domestic non financial sector + foreign financial sector 
    Data series since 1951; Updated quarterly ;
    Since 2014 Q1, U.S. total credit market is over US$ 57 Trillion.

    ...but on this chart saved 3/15/2014, U.S. total credit market is over US$ 59 Trillion since 2013 Q4.
    Which one is correct ?

    This amount does not include Corporate equities ($34.7 tn in 2013 Q4) and Mutual fund shares ($11.5 tn). Source, table L4.
    • Total credit market debt owed over GDP (in %)
    Data serie since 1951; Updated quarterly 

    Total credit market debt owed over GDP (in %); 
    Data serie from 1870 till 2009

    Private and Public Debts to GDP ratios; Data series 1920-2011

      Data serie since 1951 ; Updated quarterly ;
    Debt owed (TCMDO) = Assets held (TCMAH) = Total Credit Market Assets Held by Domestic Nonfinancial Sectors (TCMAHDNS, green line) + Held by Foreign Sectors (WCMITCMAHDNS, red line) + Held by Domestic Financial Sectors (TCMAHDFS, blue line)

    Data serie 1929-2008
      • Share (in %) of the credit market debt held by foreign sector over total credit market debt owed
      Data serie since 1951 ; Updated quarterly

      U.S. Total Public Debt  (Local + State + Federal)

      Data series since 1966; Updated quarterly; charted as yearly average
      In 2013 Q4, this amount reached US$ 20.3 Trillion.

      Data series since 1950 and 1966; 
      Updated yearly (using average of quarterly data)
      • How close to an exponential trend is the growth of Total Public Debt?

      Source: Conscience-Sociale.org, using Fed data till 2013 Q1

      Share (in %) of total public debt over the total credit market debt owed;
      Data series since 1950 and 1966; updated yearly and quarterly

      Share (in %) of  the Total US Public Debt over the value of all of the Gold mined in the world (here assumed to be constant 5,507,423,475 Troy Ounces); Data serie since 1968; Updated quarterly

      U.S. Debt service: interest payments  

      These data published by the B.E.A. may be not updated because of some US government shutdown.

      The interest payments on the debt outstanding was USD 360 billion in FY 2012 (454 in FY2011), and this amount is sharply increasing to 743 bn in the budget planned for FY 2022 :



      "Government interest payments A180RC1" (incl. Federal+State+Local interest payments); data series since 1929, updated yearly, NSA

      Federal Government Interest payments to the rest of the world since 1947, updated quarterly, NSA

      Government Interest payments to the rest of the world since 1947, 
      updated quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate


      Share of government interest payments to the total government spendings; data series since 1947 (%, lhs); 3Y UST rate since 1953 (rhs); Updated yearly and monthly

      U.S. Federal Government Interest Payments as a Percentage of Tax Revenues; data serie since 1947; updated quartertly

      Debt service since 1900 : Interest (% GDP) paid because of :
        Debt owed by State     Debt owed by Local
       Debt owed by Federal government

      U.S. Total Public Debt per person  

      Data series since 1952 and 1966; updated yearly and quarterly;
      Since 2014 Q1, U.S. total public debt per person is  over US$ 64,000.

      Data series since 1952 and 1966; updated yearly and quarterly;
      Since 2014 Q1, U.S. total public debt per population in working-age* is over US$ 83,000.

      * Working-Age Population as defined for the U.S. = Total Noninstitutionalized Civilian Population; Includes working teens 16 years old and over; Excludes kids, military personnel, people in jail.

      U.S. Federal Government Total Public Debt, and debt ceiling 

      • Federal Total Public Debt (GFDEBTN) is the total debt owed by the United States federal government.
      Data series since 1939 and 1966; Updated yearly and quarterly ;
      In 2014 Q1, Federal Total Public Debt reached US$ 17.6 Trillion.
      As of 10/7/2014, total public debt outstanding reached US$ 17.6 Trillion
      • How close to an exponential trend is the growth of GFDEBTN ?

      Source: Conscience-Sociale.org, using Fed data till 2013 Q1
      • Gross Federal Debt is forecast to grow from USD 16.05 trillion in 2012 to USD 26.08 trillion in 2023 (source: CBO, Feb. 2013 version, “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2013 to 2023”, table 1.6) : an increase of +62.5 % !
      Source

      source: NPR, 10/2013
      • Federal Total Public Debt can be split into:
      a) “debt held by the public" (FYGFDPUN, US$ 11.91 trillion in Q2 2013; $12.2 trillion on 11/13/2013) ; It includes all federal debt held by individuals, corporations, state and local governments, foreign governments, Government Account Series (GAS) deposit funds, such as the Thrift Savings Plan,  and other entities outside the United States Government less Federal Financing Bank securities. Types of securities held by the public include, but are not limited to, Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS, United States Savings Bonds, and State and Local Government Series (SLGS) securities.
      It is composed by US Treasury securities plus budget agency securities and federal mortgage debt.

      and b) “debt held by federal government accounts" (FDHBATN, US$ 4.83 trillion in Q1 2013; $4.94 trillion on 11/13/2013); These Intragovernmental Holdings are mostly made up of the Government Account Series (GAS) held by government trust funds, revolving funds, and special funds such as IOUs owed to the Social Security Trust Fund.

      Share (in %) of gross federal debt over the total credit market debt owed 
      Data series since 1950 and 1966; Updated yearly and quarterly 
      • What kind of political control does a U.S. debt ceiling which is continuously growing up demonstrate? The answer is Military Keynesianism (read ref 1, ref 2).

      U.S. Local and State Government Public Debt 

      Updated quarterly ;
      In 2012, this amount reached over US$ 3 Trillion.

      Total Revolving Credit (1968-today) 


      Student Loan Debt  (2005-2012Q1)


      As explained here, delinquency rates for student loans are likely to understate actual delinquency rates because almost half of these loans are currently in deferment or in grace periods and therefore temporarily not in the repayment cycle. Among loans in the repayment cycle, delinquency rates are roughly twice as high.
      Bank of America Research - Merryl Linch released in september 2012 a full report on this subject : summary here.



      2. United States GDP and Debt


       
      Data serie from 1955 till Q2 2009; plots using a 4Q moving average; source

      Same ratio without using a moving average (blue, lhs) ; 
      y/y increase in GDP (green, rhs); y/y increase in Total Public Debt (red, rhs); data series since 1958; updated quarterly

      Idem; 10-Year moving zoom; updated quarterly

      Data serie since 1951; updated quarterly

      Total credit market debt owed over GDP (in %) from 1870 till 2010

      Forms of Debt (%GDP, Adjusted): Total Credit Market Debt, Private Debt, Public Debt; Data serie 1916-2008; Source

      Real GDP (rhs), Total Public Debt to real GDP ratio (lhs, % using billion of chained (2005) dollars); Data serie since 1966; updated quarterly; 

      Same graph with a zoom on the last 10Y

      Government's projection of public debt / GDP ratio, without using chained (2005) dollars (see also the comparison with others countries)

      U.S. Gross Public Debt (% GDP) since 1792


      Zero Hedge has reused data from usgovernmentspending.com to produce this nice chart :

       
      1792 till 2012 data serie; Source: ZH

      U.S. Federal, State and Local Gross Public Debt (% GDP) 1900 - 2016 cumulative data serie

       Debt owed by State     Debt owed by Local
       Debt owed by Federal government

      • Main components of Gross Public Debt owed by Federal Gov. (% GDP), 1985-2016 :
       Monetized Public Debt  (Agencies...)
       Public Debt Held (SSTS, etc) 
       Public Debt (Bonds, Treasuries...)

      • Main components of Gross Federal Debt (% GDP) :
      Data serie 1940-2012 and estimations till 2016; Source

      U.S. Private Debt (% GDP)

      Data series since 1950 and 1966; Updated yearly and quarterly


      3. U.S. Debt holders

      Who are the holders of the U.S. federal debt ?

      “Debt held by the public” (FYGFDPUN or FYGFDPUB, USD 11.9 trillion in 2013Q2, see section 1 above for the CBO forecast and the red line below) includes :
        • for one part debt actually held by the private investors, pension funds, US state and local governments (FDHBPIN or FDHBPI, USD 9.9 trillion, blue line below) [this one is also including debt held by foreign & international investors like central banks (FDHBFIN or FDHBFI, USD 5.6 trillion, green line below)], 
        • and for the other part debt held by the Federal Reserve System (FDHBFRBN or FDHBFRB, USD 1.9 trillion, orange line below), i.e., monetized as part of the monetary base.
        • it does NOT include “debt held by federal government accounts" (FDHBATN or FDHBAT, USD 4.8 trillion, grey line below), such as IOUs owed to the Social Security Trust Fund (> USD 2.7 trillion).
      (chart not up to date because of broken FRED new layout component)
      • The holders of the Gross Federal public debt in 2011 :
      source: NYT, 07/2011

      Chart source: Political Calculations; data as end of Sept. 2011 
      • U.S. Federal Debt Held by Federal Reserve Banks : see Fed's dashboard page.
      Updated quarterly; in US$ bn
      • Total Federal Debt held by foreign investors as % of gross federal debt (red) and over the GDP (blue) :
      data series since 1970; updated quarterly
      • UST debt portfolio by year of maturity :

      snapshot 06/2012; source
      source; see also here for corrections

      PyramisIndeed, with recent issuance sizes and projected deficits, the Treasury is anticipating the average maturity of the portfolio to approach 80 months or 6.5 years by 2021. 

      TIPS Contribution to Average Maturity :
      Inflation-indexed securities have a greater duration than nominal securities given their inflation accretion component.
      While 10-year nominal notes and 30-year bonds have durations of about 9 years and 20 years respectively, similar maturity TIPS have durations of about 10 years and 27 years.
      These securities, especially the 30-year TIPS, have aided in the extension of the portfolio’s average maturity and added significant duration overall.

      The holders of U.S. Treasury securities 


      The holders of U.S. Agency Securities and Mortgage-Based Securities

      red: MBS held by Fed; blue: held by all commercial banks; green: total ;
      Updated weekly 

      Agency securities are liabilities of U.S. government agencies or U.S. government-sponsored enterprises (Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, Freddie Mac).

      Updated weekly ; similar to USGSEC serie.
      • MBS securities  and Federal agency debt held by the Federal Reserve: see Fed's dashboard page
      Black: US Securities; rose: Agencies + GSEs securities; 
      green: MBS; blue: corporate securities;
      8Y data series ; updated weekly; in US$ bn

      idem, annual change rates

      Source for these last 2 charts: nowandfutures.com using Fed, Treasury data.
      Excluding corporate equities and mutual fund shares.


      Total credit market instruments assets and UST held...  

      Credit market instruments is defined by only Commercial paper + Treasury securities Agency- and GSE-backed securities + Municipal securities + Mortgages Consumer credit
      Data series below are updated quarterly.
      In 2012 Q4, the U.S. Treasury share was 57.5% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by this group. The UST amount for this group was (source: Z1 flow of funds report):
      Total treasury securities:  US$ 5545.5 bn, including:
      * Official institutions:  3991.8 bn
      * Private investors:  1553.8 bn
        In 2012 Q4, the U.S. Treasury share was 0.9% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
        Assets of Federal Reserve Banks and Treasury monetary accounts that supply or absorb bank reserves. Excludes the accounts of the Federal Reserve Board.
        In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 62.4% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
        This sector includes domestic hedge funds, private equity funds, and personal trusts.
        In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 19.8% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by this group. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
        In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 0% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
        For state and local governments: in 2012 Q4, the UST share was 41.3% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. 
        For Federal government: in 2012 Q4, the UST share is 0%(source: Z1 flow of funds report)
          In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 0% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
          In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 29.0% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
            In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 1.1% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
            For Private pension funds: in 2012 Q4, the UST share was 40.6% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. 
            For state and local retirement funds: in 2012 Q4, the UST share was 28.2%. 
            For Federal retirement funds: in 2012 Q4, the UST share was 91.2%. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
            In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 9.9% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
            In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 0% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
            In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 37.8% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
            In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 27.5% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)
            In 2012 Q4, the UST share was 23.8% of the total Credit market instruments assets owned by these institutions. (source: Z1 flow of funds report)


            4. United States Debt: Trade and Budget Deficits, Defense spending

            U.S. Budget and Trade Surplus or Deficit   

            data series since 1970, 1Y MA, updated monthly; source: nowandfutures.com

            Federal expanditures and receipts As Percentages of GDP  

            data series since 1947; updated quarterly

            data series since 1929; updated yearly

            Federal Budget Surplus or Deficit As Percentages of GDP  

            Data serie from 1800 till 2011 and CBO projection to 2020
            Grey lines: CBO projections published in 2000, 2011 

            Data serie since 1929; updated yearly



            Current Account Balance world heat map (U.S. $) 


            Government (F+S+L) Receipts and Expenditures 

            data series since 1947, updated quarterly

            Federal Government Receipts and Expenditures 

            data series since 1947, updated quarterly

            Local and State Government Receipts and Expenditures 

            data series since 1929, updated quarterly and yearly

            Federal Gov. Revenues as shares of GDP : 1960-2011 


            United States Defense Spending 

            Data serie since 1962; source

            • Defense is second in top federal outlays : data series 2000-2009; and 1962-2008 (billion of constant USD) :



            Data series 1950-2010
            • Percentage of defense spending over the federal expenditures :
            % of defense spending (green line; right hand scale); Data series since 1946, updated quarterly

            The left hand scale shows the difference between federal expenditures (blue) and net outlays (FYONET, red).

            Data series since 1946, updated yearly; 
            Note the vertical left hand scale : bottom line is 20%, not 0%

            Same chart from wikipedia, on a shorter period (please read carefully the small caracters just below the chart) :



            Federal government: military workforce; data serie since 1929, updated yearly

            This total does not include workforce from Private military companies (PMCs) a.k.a Private Military / Private Security Companies or Contractor (PSC). According to a 2008 study by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, private contractors make up 29% of the workforce in the United States Intelligence Community, and cost the equivalent of 49% of their personnel budgets.
            As of October 2012, in Afghanistan, there were 18,914 PSC personnel working for DOD; in Iraq, there were 2,116 PSC personnel. The total number of DoD contractor personnel in USCENTCOM area of operations, Iraq and Afghanistan is over 137,400. Reported PSCs are only part of them. (Source : US Secretary of Defense)

            As of October 2012, nearly five million people held government security clearances. Of that, 1.4 million held top-secret clearances. More than a third of those with top-secret clearances are contractors.
            “The national security apparatus has been more and more privatized and turned over to contractors,” said Danielle Brian, the executive director of the Project on Government Oversight, a nonprofit group that studies federal government contracting. “This is something the public is largely unaware of, how more than a million private contractors are cleared to handle highly sensitive matters.”

            • Number of persons with a national security clearance : source 

            Full-time equivalent employees: Federal general government: Civilian ; data serie since 1929
            • U.S. Defense spending data serie using chained (2003) dollars, from 1910 till 2007 :

            • U.S. Defense spending data serie (% GDP), 1792-2015 :

            ...to be compared with U.K. defense budget :


            5. United States monetary policy and the international status of the U.S. dollar

            See the U.S. Fed's dashboard page for details about :
            • U.S. Money Supply
            • Fed's holdings
            • Fed's monetary policy
            • How confident do the foreign central banks feel in the U.S. dollar international status?